Threads / Joe Mauer's productivity will dip in 2010.
Joe Mauer had a career year last year hitting nearly hitting 40 points over his career batting average and 10 home runs over his career home run average. His run numbers are not going to improve over last season due to the lack of talent hitting behind him but his rbi's should improve slightly with some improved luck. I project that his numbers for 2010 will look like this: 85 runs, 22 home runs, 90, 105 rbi, 2 sb, and a .325 batting average. Even with position scarcity, these numbers aren't worthy of a top 20 pick. Lets put it this way, it's not going to take me a long time to pull the trigger on draft day if Ryan Howard and Joe Mauer are still on board. I'm taking Ryan Howard all the way, while taking my chances with Mike Napoli at catcher and you'll be wishing you had an elite first basemen.
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, MI
"if Ryan Howard and Joe Mauer are still on board. I'm taking Ryan Howard all the way"
Have fun losing your fantasy baseball league.
Even if Mauer productivity does dip (and it probably will just because his year last year was unreal), first base is a much deeper position than catcher.
Have fun losing your fantasy baseball league.
Even if Mauer productivity does dip (and it probably will just because his year last year was unreal), first base is a much deeper position than catcher.
I might take Howard too, there are some decent catchers that i can get 10 rounds later. Howard puts up SO many hr's and rbi's.....
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I think Mauer hits more in the .330 range but I'd take the season.
, WA
Ha, Ryan Howard over Joe Mauer? See, you obviously do not understand the word "value". First base is unbelievably deep, you can grab a guy who is damn near as productive as Howard is in the 50-60 range with ease...you arent going to do that with Mauer.
, GA
, NJ
I'm not totally out to lunch here. Look at Razzball.com. If I had to guess, all of you hate that site. That's allright. If you hold the same cheet sheets during draft day as everyone else, you won't have an advantage over your league. I try to be a little unconventional but come draft day, I too would probably pick Mauer over Howard. My effort usually pays off in the later rounds.
I agree with you for the most part here. He is a great player, the games best catcher, but is overvalued in fantasy land. Even though he missed quite some time due to injury, i expect worse fantasy stats in 2010 out of him.
I'm 90 % sure Victor Martinez is going to have a better fantasy year than Mauer. He's going to be a free agent after the season and his stats with the Redsox project to be huge. There's a pretty good possibility that he'll hit 4th in the linup behind David Ortiz and before Kevin Youkilis.
, PA
That's a good spot to be in. Pretty safe bet. If he has an average year, he drops to the value of say Hanley Ramirez.
But if Hanley could only go back to hitting leadoff again instead of cleanup, you'd have a real hard choice on your hands. He scores a whole lot more runs and steals a whole lot more bases when he hits leadoff. I'm not sure where there going to have him hit this year, but they've got to consider where he is most valuable to the team. I don't see him as a cleanup hitter.
There's some really good underated players kicking around this year. I'm just trying to identify who they are..By throwing around names in this forum, it gives me a feel for what the general consensus is. Ben Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, Mark Reynolds, Brian Roberts, are all being undervalued while players with the sexy names, Curtis Granderson, Carl Crawford, Brian McCann, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera are all over rated. Knowing all this allows me to sit back and pick awsome pitchers while everyone fights over these guys, then while they're trying to catch up on pitching, I'm getting the underrated hitters on the market. I get a lot of satisfaction out of picking their pockets. It doesn't always work, but it does most of the time and I'm working harder at it this year than ever. We'll see if it all pans out.
You don't get credit for predicting that Mauer will regress after having one of the two best offensive seasons for a catcher ever.
Who said I was looking for credit? It's obvious his numbers are going down. All but his RBI total. His history also says he's going to get injured this season. Probably miss 30 games in a row. He's a big risk in the top 20.
I'm glad we all agree. He's not going to be as valuable. He'll have a season more like 06, 07, or 08. That's a larger sampling than last years numbers. What's your level of certainty that he will perform to his freak year last year? I'm 25% sure. I'm not going to bet my fantasy season on a guy that had one good year. I may have been talking about Julio Bourbon and Nelson Cruz in other threads but I'm not going to take those guys until after the 10th round or so. You're crazy to waste waste waste you're number one pick on this guy. He's just too risky.
, MI
OF COURSE his productivity will dip. That's pretty similar to saying that if I throw this rock up in the air, it will come back down.
It's funny how pointing out the obvious gets everyone all riled up. I'm just sick of seeing him being projected in the top 10. He was top 20 last year. He won't be this year.
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