Threads / Why Jennings going to Europe was a mistake.
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Madison, WI
So we have been dissecting the basketball aspect of this move left and right. Now for the other side; the business side.
Brandon Jennings was the 10th overall pick in the draft. Due to rookie slotting he will receive $1,087,100 the first year, $1,942,600 the second year, $2,078,100 the third year, $2,649,577 the fourth year and then receive a $3,608,725 qualifying option his fifth year. The fifth year is irrelevant as the player becomes a restricted free agent and is subject to receive an offer sheet from any team, which Jennings would surely receive and boost his salary dramatically.
Now lets imagine if Jennings went to college for a year and did his thing. Given how good he appears to be, there is a good chance he would've been the #1 pick in the draft. At worst, he would've gone #4 overall to the Kings, so I will use that as a worse case scenario. He would've made $3,008,400 the first year, $3,234,100 the second year, $3,459,700 the third year and $4,376,521 the fourth year.
Europe: $7,757,377 over the next four years
College: $14,078,721 over the next four years
And again, we're talking about basically a worst case scenario for college. He will be making close to half as much as a result of Europe than he would have made by staying in America. In short, Jennings made a $6.5 million mistake.
Brandon Jennings was the 10th overall pick in the draft. Due to rookie slotting he will receive $1,087,100 the first year, $1,942,600 the second year, $2,078,100 the third year, $2,649,577 the fourth year and then receive a $3,608,725 qualifying option his fifth year. The fifth year is irrelevant as the player becomes a restricted free agent and is subject to receive an offer sheet from any team, which Jennings would surely receive and boost his salary dramatically.
Now lets imagine if Jennings went to college for a year and did his thing. Given how good he appears to be, there is a good chance he would've been the #1 pick in the draft. At worst, he would've gone #4 overall to the Kings, so I will use that as a worse case scenario. He would've made $3,008,400 the first year, $3,234,100 the second year, $3,459,700 the third year and $4,376,521 the fourth year.
Europe: $7,757,377 over the next four years
College: $14,078,721 over the next four years
And again, we're talking about basically a worst case scenario for college. He will be making close to half as much as a result of Europe than he would have made by staying in America. In short, Jennings made a $6.5 million mistake.
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, TX
Shit, forgot to factor that in. $1.2 million, plus a $2 million Under Armour contract. So about a $3.5 million mistake, at worst. I'm not sure how long the Under Armour contract was for though. If it was more than just one year, that could be a bigger negative.
It probably comes out close to even since he wouldn't of been playing against as tough of competition and he probably wouldn't have been as good as he is now. But then him playing against worst competition could have made him look better.
, NJ
That would be nice, but Jennings didn't have the option to go to college, right? He'd have had to go to community college or something, and I doubt he'd have improved his draft stock there...
Well I have never heard if his final SAT attempt worked out or not. I always assumed it did not since he decided to go to Europe basically immediately after the score was supposed to have been sent out, but that is an assumption I wouldn't make anymore. He would've found a way to get to Arizona.
You sure? There are plenty of guys who couldn't make it to the school of their choice. Kevin Garnett, Shawn Kemp, and Lamar Odom come to mind.
Kemp and Odom made it to their schools of choice, if I'm not mistaken. They just blew it once they got there. Don't remember why Garnett didn't go to college. I've watched a couple documentaries on him and they make it seem like he was just ready to go pro.
Garnett didn't go to college for the same reason Jennings didn't: SAT score wasn't high enough.
I stand corrected re: Kemp and Odom. The point is, sometimes college just doesn't happen.
I stand corrected re: Kemp and Odom. The point is, sometimes college just doesn't happen.
After rookie contracts, it is hard for a player to make more money than they otherwise would have. For players like Jennings, their contracts are immediately maxed out as soon as they become unrestricted and offer sheets while they are restricted are limited as well. So from what I understand, and I could be wrong, it's not possible for Brandon to make this money up through further contracts.
Yeah, advertising is the wild card. Does this make him more marketable overseas? It's certainly possible.
He made money in Europe, but I think playing in Europe made him the player he is today. Trust me, he will get his big contract in 4-5 years so I doubt he regrets the decision.
You know he didnt go to U of A cuz he didnt pass his ACTs or SATs cant remember which one. It wasnt his choice, he couldnt get accepted to a major school. He woulda had to go to some junior college or something
It was never publicly known whether or not he failed his final SAT attempt. I always assumed that he did, and that he was essentially forced to Europe, but I'm not so sure anymore. Plus, he still could've found a way to play at Arizona if he really wanted to.
He didnt have the scores to make it into the school or most of the schools. There isnt a way to get in. He took the test like 3 times and I dont think came close. Im pretty sure they said it a number of times on AZ radio. It was either some no name college, junior college, or Europe. It was his best choice. If kids decide to do that cuz of him they are dumb cuz he did it cuz he pretty much had to
Actually, he passed the test the second time. In fact, he passed it too easily the second time. His test score was red flagged because it increased "too much" from his first attempt. As a result, he was forced to take it a third, and that we do not know the outcome to.
Well there ya go. If he passed it the 3rd time he wouldnt have went to Europe. He isnt dumb. He and everyone knows that he wouldnt get near as much air time or be notcied as much as if he went to U of A
He didnt have the scores to make it into the school or most of the schools. There isnt a way to get in. He took the test like 3 times and I dont think came close. Im pretty sure they said it a number of times on AZ radio. It was either some no name college, junior college, or Europe. It was his best choice. If kids decide to do that cuz of him they are dumb cuz he did it cuz he pretty much had to
Los Angeles, CA
Good point. In the whole Europe debate, my stance is that there are just way more benefits to going to college overall. If it were my kid with the choice, I'd say go to college....start your education, enjoy college life, and raise your draft stock all at the same time.
As a player , the main factor for me going to Europe would be if I didn't make it to a college or if my family desperately needed the money.
I do think Jennings advanced his game in Europe....but the key is he learned humility and work ethic there faster than going to college....where he would likely have been a star player.
And although international scouting is higher than its ever been, its still easier to improve your draft stock in college....its just easier to scout at this point and is the more high profile route.
I guess one point though is that Jennings was the pioneer. Some teams scout internationally harder than others. Also, I believe there was some bias towards Jennings and his decision by teams....as some teams didn't even bring him in to work him out. Very odd. I think now that Jennings has blown up.... teams will take a harder look at players that go overseas, even if they don't appear as "successful" over there.
As a player , the main factor for me going to Europe would be if I didn't make it to a college or if my family desperately needed the money.
I do think Jennings advanced his game in Europe....but the key is he learned humility and work ethic there faster than going to college....where he would likely have been a star player.
And although international scouting is higher than its ever been, its still easier to improve your draft stock in college....its just easier to scout at this point and is the more high profile route.
I guess one point though is that Jennings was the pioneer. Some teams scout internationally harder than others. Also, I believe there was some bias towards Jennings and his decision by teams....as some teams didn't even bring him in to work him out. Very odd. I think now that Jennings has blown up.... teams will take a harder look at players that go overseas, even if they don't appear as "successful" over there.
Right, if more players follow Brandon's path and succeed, then this won't be an issue. But for Brandon, there is no question the move dropped his stock significantly, whether it should have or not. It seems like a lock it will do the same thing to Jeremy Tyler as well. But I do agree that the more people that do it and succeed will erase the problem, somewhat similar to H.S. players.
Since we've been sitting here in hindsight and talked about how good of a basketball move it was, I just wanted to throw the financial aspect into it, which didn't end up working out very favorably.
I also think the big thing for Jennings is that he learned humility prior to moving to Europe. What came from his failure to meet college requirements was an embarrassment to say the least, and I'm sure it woke him up extremely fast. You know, I've never understood why athletes say positive things are a "humbling experience." Like a player wins the MVP or goes to the All-Star game and says it was a humbling experience. Jennings was truly humbled. Jennings was on the verge of major basketball being stripped from him and for a teenager with his talent, that had to have really put things in perspective for him.
Since we've been sitting here in hindsight and talked about how good of a basketball move it was, I just wanted to throw the financial aspect into it, which didn't end up working out very favorably.
I also think the big thing for Jennings is that he learned humility prior to moving to Europe. What came from his failure to meet college requirements was an embarrassment to say the least, and I'm sure it woke him up extremely fast. You know, I've never understood why athletes say positive things are a "humbling experience." Like a player wins the MVP or goes to the All-Star game and says it was a humbling experience. Jennings was truly humbled. Jennings was on the verge of major basketball being stripped from him and for a teenager with his talent, that had to have really put things in perspective for him.
Worst case scenario was he gets hurt in college and drops like a lead balloon in the draft to like 23 to the Thunder but I see your point.
He turned down Arizona because Lute Olsen retired after he decided to go there I think and he didn't want to play for the new coach and just decided to go to Europe.
He turned down Arizona because Lute Olsen retired after he decided to go there I think and he didn't want to play for the new coach and just decided to go to Europe.
Did he? Wow I always thought it was because Olsen was stepping down he didnt want to go anywhere else? If not that is a weird decision why he'd do that. Could you imagine Jennings and Budinger in that backcourt? They could have moved Budinger to SF and Nick Wise to SG also. Wow.
Yeah, that team would've been insane with Jennings-Wise-Budinger and don't forget about Jordan Hill in the paint. National championship contender for sure with that quad. Imagine if Jerryd Bayless would've gone back too. That's mind boggling.
Yeah it would have been I forgot about Hill. Bayless coming back would have caused problems. Jennings wouldn't have committed there if Bayless came back since hed get no playing time.
Bayless actually had a pretty large role in attracting Jennings to the school. It was also reported that Jerryd told Brandon he would be back for another year, and Jennings was extatic about that. Keep in mind Nic Wise really had a breakout year last year. Jennings would've received all the minutes he wanted.
Hmm interesting. Not sure the logic there. Maybe he figured Bayless would mentor him but you'd think a guy like Jennings would have an ego the size of mount everest and want to be the man there. Surprising.
That's what I thought too, but I think he might be one of those players that genuinely wants to win. After seeing him in Milwaukee, that's the impression I get. Obviously he wants to be a major piece of the winner and doesn't want to be a bench player, like we saw in Europe, but it seemed like he was excited to go to that situation. You're right that it would've been pretty crowded on that court though.
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